The cash flow, return and risk characteristics of private equity

Using a unique dataset of private equity funds over the last two decades, this paper analyzes the cash flow, return, and risk characteristics of private equity. We document the draw down and capital return schedules for the typical private equity fund, and show that it takes several years for capital to be invested, and over ten years for capital to be returned to generate excess returns. We provide several determining factors for these schedules, including existing investment opportunities and competition amongst private equity funds. In terms of performance, we document that private equity generates excess returns on the order of five plus percent per annum relative to the aggregate public equity market. One interpretation of this magnitude is that it represents compensation for holding a 10-year illiquid investment.

On the decision to go public: Evidence from privately-held firms

We test recent theories of when companies go public which predict that 1) more companies will go public when outside valuations are high or have increased, 2) companies prefer going public when uncertainty about their future profitability is high, and 3) firms whose controlling shareholders enjoy large private benefits of control are less likely to go public. Our analysis tracks a set of 330 privately-held German firms which between 1984 and 1995 announced their intention to go public to see whether, when, and how they subsequently sold equity to outside investors. Controlling for private benefits, we find that the likelihood of firms completing an initial public offering increases in the firm's investment opportunities and valuations. We also show that these effects are distinct from factors that increase firms' demand for outside capital more generally. --Going public decision,IPO timing,Private benefits,Family firms

Monitoring Managers: Does it Matter?

We test under what circumstances boards discipline managers and whether such interventions improve performance. We exploit exogenous variation due to the staggered adoption of corporate governance laws in formerly Communist countries coupled with detailed ‘hard’ information about the board’s performance expectations and ‘soft’ information about board and CEO actions and the board’s beliefs about CEO competence in 473 mostly private-sector companies backed by private equity funds between 1993 and 2008. We find that CEOs are fired when the company underperforms relative to the board’s expectations, suggesting that boards use performance to update their beliefs. CEOs are especially likely to be fired when evidence has mounted that they are incompetent and when board power has increased following corporate governance reforms. In contrast, CEOs are not fired when performance deteriorates due to factors deemed explicitly to be beyond their control, nor are they fired for making ‘honest mistakes.’ Following forced CEO turnover, companies see performance improvements and their investors are considerably more likely to eventually sell them at a profit.Corporate Governance, Large Shareholders, Boards of Directors, CEO Turnover, Legal Reforms, Transition Economies, Private Equity

An Analysis of Shareholder Agreements.

Shareholder agreements govern the relations among shareholders in privately held firms, such as joint ventures and venture capital-backed companies. We provide an economic explanation for key clauses in such agreements—namely, put and call options, tag-along and drag-along rights, demand and piggy-back rights, and catch-up clauses. In a dynamic moral hazard setting, we show that these clauses can ensure that the contract parties make efficient ex ante investments in the firm. They do so by constraining renegotiation. In the absence of the clauses, ex ante investment would be distorted by unconstrained renegotiation aimed at (i) precluding value-destroying ex post transfers, (ii) inducing value-increasing ex post investments, or (iii) precluding hold-out on value-increasing sales to a trade buyer or the IPO market.Corporate Governance; Restructuring; Investment Decision;

On the decision to go public: Evidence from privately-held firms

We test recent theories of when companies go public which predict that 1) more companies will go public when outside valuations are high or have increased, 2) companies prefer going public when uncertainty about their future profitability is high, and 3) firms whose controlling shareholders enjoy large private benefits of control are less likely to go public. Our analysis tracks a set of 330 privatelyheld German firms which between 1984 and 1995 announced their intention to go public to see whether, when, and how they subsequently sold equity to outside investors. Controlling for private benefits, we find that the likelihood of firms completing an initial public offering increases in the firm’s investment opportunities and valuations. We also show that these effects are distinct from factors that increase firms’ demand for outside capital more generally

Sharing Underwriters with Rivals: Implications for Competition in Investment Banking

We conjecture that issuing firms seek to avoid sharing underwriters with their product-market rivals in order to limit the risk that strategically sensitive information is leaked to a rival firm via the underwriter relationship. We investigate this conjecture in a sample of 5,272 equity deals and 12,453 debt deals by large U.S. firms between 1975 and 2003. Using several distinct sources of identification, we find that this phenomenon is at least as important in determining the choice of lead underwriter as the bank’s reputation or the issuing firm’s existing relationship with the underwriter. We argue that this finding has important implications for understanding the nature of competition among investment banks, the durability of underwriting relationships, the success of entrants, and the likely impact of investment bank mergers on market power

Competition and the Structure of Vertical Relationships in Capital Markets

We document that firms appear disinclined to share underwriters with other firms in the same industry. We show that this disinclination is evident only when firms engage in product-market competition. This leads us to suggest that concerns about information leakage may motivate the patterns we see in the data. We discuss how these effects help us understand how the investment banking industry is structured, how banks compete, and how prices are set. At each step we exploit sources of exogenous variation that correspond to specific margins on which the effects of interest directly influence incentives and choices

The Value of Research

We estimate the value added by sell-side equity research analysts and explore the links between analyst research, informational efficiency, and asset prices. We identify the value of research from exogenous changes in analyst coverage. On announcement that a stock has lost all coverage, share prices fall by around 110 basis points or $8.4 million on average. The share price reaction is attenuated the more analysts continue to cover the stock, suggesting that there are diminishing returns to coverage at the margin. The adverse effect of coverage terminations is proportional to the analyst’s reputation and experience and to the size of the broker’s retail sales force. Exogenous reductions in coverage are followed by: less efficient pricing and lower liquidity; greater earnings surprises and more volatile trading around subsequent earnings announcements; increases in required returns; and reduced return volatility. Simulations suggest investors can trade profitably on the volatility changes. Finally, retail investors sell and large institutional investors buy around coverage terminations, suggesting that different investor clienteles have different demands for analyst research

Competition and the Structure of Vertical Relationships in Capital Markets

We document that firms appear disinclined to share underwriters with other firms in the same industry. We show that this disinclination is evident only when firms engage in product-market competition. This leads us to suggest that concerns about information leakage may motivate the patterns we see in the data. We discuss how these effects help us understand how the investment banking industry is structured, how banks compete, and how prices are set. At each step we exploit sources of exogenous variation that correspond to specific margins on which the effects of interest directly influence incentives and choices

THE INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR OF PRIVATE EQUITY FUND MANAGERS

Using a unique dataset of private equity funds over the last two decades, this paper analyzes the investment behavior of private equity fund managers. Based on recent theoretical advances, we link the timing of funds’ investment and exit decisions, and the subsequent returns they earn on their portfolio companies, to changes in the demand for private equity in a setting where the supply of capital is ‘sticky’ in the short run. We show that existing funds accelerate their investment flows and earn higher returns when investment opportunities improve and the demand for capital increases. Increases in supply lead to tougher competition for deal flow, and private equity fund managers respond by cutting their investment spending. These findings provide complementary evidence to recent papers documenting the determinants of fund-level performance in private equity